What is scaring me is I keep seeing stuff like this....

QUOTE: June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Officer Steven Ballmer said the world’s largest software company would move some employees offshore if Congress enacts President Barack Obama’s plans to impose higher taxes on U.S. companies’ foreign profits.



Microsoft as you know has been a big democrat supporter for many years, so for them to come out with a statement like this is very telling.

 

Well, I'm not sure I have a handle on all the variables. It seems like I've heard Obama saying something like "fair is fair... Why should big companies get tax breaks when little ones can't?" Is that the rationale he's using? I don't know if that makes sense or not.... Just haven't put that much thought into it. 1) I can't do anything about it. 2) I can't find a way to profit from solving the puzzle.

I do know that MSFT will do whatever they can to make as much money as they can. That's a given. I'm also not sure how much fretting I should do over certain jobs moving overseas. Sounds remarkably similar to everyone freaking out about robots taking everyone's job in the 80's (robots came, everybody still had a job). I don't think that if some jobs move overseas it means there will be less jobs here. I think new jobs will come "out of thin air" to fill the void since productivity and profits are higher. Doing something in an inefficient manner (paying too high of a wage for no improvement on productivity) just doesn't make sense to me economically. Also, we can't stop globalization. Its not like one country can hurt without everyone else feeling it. So, I'm thinking just let the market determine where the best labor force is and productivity will rise and the entire globe will do ok. As Mexico, China, India, etc rise economically, they will demand higher wages as well. At which point, everyone on the planet will be on an even playing field and there will be no such thing as outsourcing. But, I don't spend a great deal of time mulling this over.... I could be way off.

I just know this is a good time to make lots of money. Interest rates are low, there is a lot of cash in the economy, people are prepared for anything, companies are streamlined and more efficient now than ever (due to the recession),,, I think this is a good time to be an American and I see a pretty bright future. As long as everyone has a healthy amount of fear, I will continue feeling confident. Its when people begin saying, X will go up forever (where X is real estate in 2006, stocks in 1999, or whatever), then I will begin worrying.

 

Btw, the DJIA is looking like it will make a run for 9000. Don't wait for the top to buy.

 

Even if you did, I'm sure they'd find a way to change the problem. Regardless of who's in office.

 

No doubt.

 

Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series

 

You must factor natural resources into the equation. We have lots of natural resources. Those that don't will never be equal. Not sure the playing field will be ever be equal. USA will be dominant for the foreseeable future....education, political structure, infrastructure, economy, scientific resources (universities), hospitals...we have so much. It takes a long time to build those assests.

Nice to hear somebody on this site doesn't think the end of the world is coming. I can't seem to get my arms around what appear to be hopes that our economy will go under.

 

Did you read the stratfor article I posted for DeeDawg? It talks about all the natural resources North America has and why it will be the first to come out of the recession.

What I mean by equal playing field is that workers the world over will demand similar wages. Once people in China become accustomed to eating at MacDonalds, drinking at Starbucks, shopping at Walmart, and driving a Chevy.... instead of living in a grass hut, trodding around a rice patty swamp, and taking the family bicycle into town,,, they will begin to demand the same kinds of wages any other developed nation's people would.

At the 2008 olympics I was surprised to see so many cars over there. Of course, its a large city in China and not indicative of the majority of people there, but still, I was expecting to see everyone on a bicycle. While watching the GM show on CNBC, I heard a few Chinese fellers talking how its the dream of the people there to own a Chevy or Buick. So much so, that Chinese car companies have cloned the name.... One company is called Chery, where the r looks like a v. And the Walmart show on CNBC is another good one. Walmart is the biggest thing in China since rice. They pile up behind each other in such a buying frenzy there that they break the display-glass holding the product. Everyday there is like black Friday here. Everyday ALL the checkout lines are packed full. I've never seen ALL the checkout lines at Walmart used at one time.... Not even half really.


Everybody wants to see a train wreck. Back when the DJIA was in a free fall last March, I was getting pretty angry at guys dissin America. I mean, here we are spending oodles of tax dollars in bailouts and stimulus, just to have guys running around presenting arguments for why America is going down the tubes (apparently in an effort to further their profits in short positions). And not just everyday yahoos, I'm talking relatively high-profile guys with a large client and subscription base. Treason, I was calling it... If not that, then financial terrorism.

If everyone woke up on Monday thinking America was going to be just fine, they'd bid stocks up to 10,000 en masse, people's IRA's would be back in black, companies would be flush with cash and equity and they would begin hiring, and everything would be ok. Its all about sentiment and confidence. But noooo... Some people have to see the DJIA at 3000, unemployment at 25%, and the dollar replaced by gold before they will be happy.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Peter Schiff Was Wrong

"Unlike Schiff, we attempt to position our clients for what the market is actually doing, not what we think it ought to be doing. The distinction is paramount, especially when such thinking just might be wrong."

 

I hope you guys that think this economic mess will go away soon are right. But, I think you may be putting a little too much stock in what the news media pundits are telling you and the way they are telling you. Bush was crucified in the media when the deficit reached $480 billion. Day after day we were bombarded with dire predicitions of what that meant to the econmy and future generations. It was bad to see the deficit reach that level, but when Obama has us looking at a $12 trillion deficit, there is hardly any criticism from anyone in the media.

Last night on network TV there was this info-babe supposedly reporting on Obama's speech yesterday in Egypt. She starts out saying something to the effect, "The President gave an outstanding speech today..." I'm in a position where I get a lot of news releases from PR firms. This sounded more like one of them than a news broadcast.

You need to have your crap detectors turned on high when you listen to network news or read news articles. That's really a shame.

 

Instead of paying $700+ a year for cable tv, pay stratfor $200-$300 for 2 yrs of relavent news with intelligent interpretation and no bias. I don't watch any news except CNBC and that's just for the economic reports n whatnot pertaining to my trading.

No, my optimism comes mainly from price action in the markets. They say in sports to watch the scoreboard.... Well, the scoreboard (the markets) are saying things are looking up. Back in Jan and Feb the market would selloff everytime Obama opened his mouth (which seemed like every damn day), but now they rally after his speeches. Have been doing so for a long time now. Whatever he is saying, the markets like, so that's good enough for me. I don't really pay much attention to the speech itself or the talking-heads on the news. FoxNews is especially full of bs and/or crap I couldn't really care less about. I just find myself watching it at times for the foxes. Btw, I think you can get a deal on stratfor thru Oreilly's website. Oreilly is how I heard of them in the first place.

If the markets selloff anytime soon, it will be over the oil prices and interest rates. The bond bubble popped sooner than I thought and drove rates up faster than I thought... And of course oil at $70 is difficult to justify by demand alone. However, I heard on CNBC that there is a 100% chance the fed will raise rates by december. So, maybe the interest rate levels are tolerable. I don't know. I do know if oil goes much higher there is no way its due to demand. And since its not due to demand, it will be a huge tax on the economy.

Oil just hit 70 and the dollar is rallying, so maybe stocks can hold their levels while oil pulls back from 70 and the dollar gains strength in front of the next dollar crash. If they do, that would be an extremely optimistic sign for stocks. Currently, stocks, oil, and the dollar have all been moving hand-in-hand. That can't go on forever.