They say a picture is worth a 1000 words...........here are three
#131
#132
(Re: Chronic unemployment in Europe.)
See Site - Young and jobless in Europe: getting a foot in the door
Just Google unemployement and europe and you'll find plenty more to read.
You're right though about BOA not being bankrupt. However, the government did force them to pay $15 billion more for Merrill Lynch than their accountants figured it was worth. News reports this past week question whether it was even worth that.
You also indicated that 1987 crash was no big deal. Where did you get that idea?
"October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong, spread west through international time zones to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%).[1] By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.8%, Australia 41.8%, Spain 31%, the United Kingdom 26.4%, the United States 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%. New Zealand's market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and taking several years to recover."
I'll have to admit though that the stock markets have recovered fairly well, again. But, I still think we need to be concerned about long-term consequences of government taking over major segments of the economy and businesses.
How about GM deciding to keep open a warehouse facility in Barney Frank's district after getting a call from the Congressman? A business decision was negated by political pressure. That's scary.
See Site - Young and jobless in Europe: getting a foot in the door
Just Google unemployement and europe and you'll find plenty more to read.
You're right though about BOA not being bankrupt. However, the government did force them to pay $15 billion more for Merrill Lynch than their accountants figured it was worth. News reports this past week question whether it was even worth that.
You also indicated that 1987 crash was no big deal. Where did you get that idea?
"October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong, spread west through international time zones to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%).[1] By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.8%, Australia 41.8%, Spain 31%, the United Kingdom 26.4%, the United States 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%. New Zealand's market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and taking several years to recover."
I'll have to admit though that the stock markets have recovered fairly well, again. But, I still think we need to be concerned about long-term consequences of government taking over major segments of the economy and businesses.
How about GM deciding to keep open a warehouse facility in Barney Frank's district after getting a call from the Congressman? A business decision was negated by political pressure. That's scary.
#133
(Re: Chronic unemployment in Europe.)
See Site - Young and jobless in Europe: getting a foot in the door
Just Google unemployement and europe and you'll find plenty more to read.
You're right though about BOA not being bankrupt. However, the government did force them to pay $15 billion more for Merrill Lynch than their accountants figured it was worth. News reports this past week question whether it was even worth that.
You also indicated that 1987 crash was no big deal. Where did you get that idea?
"October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong, spread west through international time zones to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%).[1] By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.8%, Australia 41.8%, Spain 31%, the United Kingdom 26.4%, the United States 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%. New Zealand's market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and taking several years to recover."
I'll have to admit though that the stock markets have recovered fairly well, again. But, I still think we need to be concerned about long-term consequences of government taking over major segments of the economy and businesses.
How about GM deciding to keep open a warehouse facility in Barney Frank's district after getting a call from the Congressman? A business decision was negated by political pressure. That's scary.
See Site - Young and jobless in Europe: getting a foot in the door
Just Google unemployement and europe and you'll find plenty more to read.
You're right though about BOA not being bankrupt. However, the government did force them to pay $15 billion more for Merrill Lynch than their accountants figured it was worth. News reports this past week question whether it was even worth that.
You also indicated that 1987 crash was no big deal. Where did you get that idea?
"October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong, spread west through international time zones to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%).[1] By the end of October, stock markets in Hong Kong had fallen 45.8%, Australia 41.8%, Spain 31%, the United Kingdom 26.4%, the United States 22.68%, and Canada 22.5%. New Zealand's market was hit especially hard, falling about 60% from its 1987 peak, and taking several years to recover."
I'll have to admit though that the stock markets have recovered fairly well, again. But, I still think we need to be concerned about long-term consequences of government taking over major segments of the economy and businesses.
How about GM deciding to keep open a warehouse facility in Barney Frank's district after getting a call from the Congressman? A business decision was negated by political pressure. That's scary.
How do I know the 87 crash was no big deal?
Well, here's a chart of the s&p 500:
You see 1987 in there? Was it a big deal? Don't think so.
In 1987 I was 14. I was in school the day the market crashed. Dad had been an investor since the 70's and seemed to do ok at it, so, after school I asked him what was up with the markets and he said "Its no big deal."
I don't know about the other stuff you're on about.
#134
That chart seems very strange. I was consulting for an investment firm at the time of the 1987 crash, and believe me it was a big deal. My client had trouble reaching brokerage firms on "Black Monday" and for some time afterward, because they wouldn't answer their phones. But, I guess it did not have much long term impact.
The thing to keep in mind is that back then we didn't have government directing car companies, banks and brokerage firms. The market sorted itself out and kept going. Things are very different today.
The thing to keep in mind is that back then we didn't have government directing car companies, banks and brokerage firms. The market sorted itself out and kept going. Things are very different today.
#135
Quoting from 2009:
Well,,, I don't know too much about all that. All I know is the economic perspective. Oil is almost $70 again. Copper is up nicely. Stocks are above the long-term moving averages. Unemployment is slowing, if not reversing. Housing is turning. The summer of 2007 was a good time to present a coming recession argument... But not now.
Look at the unemployment rate. Its clearly closer to a top than a bottom: St. Louis Fed: Series: UNRATE, Civilian Unemployment Rate
Inventory to sales ratio is closer to a top than a bottom: St. Louis Fed: Series: ISRATIO, Inventory to Sales Ratio: Total Business
Vehicle sales: St. Louis Fed: Series: ALTSALES, Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos & Light Trucks
Consumer Sentiment: St. Louis Fed: Series: UMCSENT, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Housing starts: St. Louis Fed: Series: HOUST, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started
Things are going to get better, not worse.
Sorry, but I am going to have to respectfully disagree.
That graph shows unemployment is still climbing.
"Ratio" is the key word here - dealerships have a huge amount of inventory and few sales - as shown by your graph.
This graph also shows sales dropping like a hot rock.
This gragh shows consumer confidence is as low as it's been in 30 years.
This graph shows housing starts dropping like there is no tomorrow.
Again, we will have to agree to disagree.
Just think of all the money you could have made if you had agreed with me.
Well,,, I don't know too much about all that. All I know is the economic perspective. Oil is almost $70 again. Copper is up nicely. Stocks are above the long-term moving averages. Unemployment is slowing, if not reversing. Housing is turning. The summer of 2007 was a good time to present a coming recession argument... But not now.
Look at the unemployment rate. Its clearly closer to a top than a bottom: St. Louis Fed: Series: UNRATE, Civilian Unemployment Rate
Inventory to sales ratio is closer to a top than a bottom: St. Louis Fed: Series: ISRATIO, Inventory to Sales Ratio: Total Business
Vehicle sales: St. Louis Fed: Series: ALTSALES, Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos & Light Trucks
Consumer Sentiment: St. Louis Fed: Series: UMCSENT, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Housing starts: St. Louis Fed: Series: HOUST, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started
Things are going to get better, not worse.
Sorry, but I am going to have to respectfully disagree.
That graph shows unemployment is still climbing.
"Ratio" is the key word here - dealerships have a huge amount of inventory and few sales - as shown by your graph.
This graph also shows sales dropping like a hot rock.
This gragh shows consumer confidence is as low as it's been in 30 years.
This graph shows housing starts dropping like there is no tomorrow.
Again, we will have to agree to disagree.
#136
Anyway, we may get a chance to try again.
When we finally do get inflation, I don't see how they (Fed, ECB, BOJ, etc) will be able to raise rates high enough to stop it without causing defaults on the debt they created. It's either: crash the system or let inflation run away. It doesn't look good.
I'll come back in another 7 years to see how accurate this call was
When we finally do get inflation, I don't see how they (Fed, ECB, BOJ, etc) will be able to raise rates high enough to stop it without causing defaults on the debt they created. It's either: crash the system or let inflation run away. It doesn't look good.
I'll come back in another 7 years to see how accurate this call was
#139
#140
I hope Trump is really as pro-gun rights, tax cuts, etc. as he says he is. He changes views every other day it seems. To me, it's kind of sad to see the final two candidates are a self absorbed, it's all about me, narcissist, and someone who quite possibly will be facing felony charges.