I have no crystal ball. China, Japan and others will continue supporting our debt as they need our markets to sustain and grow their economies until China, India and other former third-world counties, but especially China (9.2% real GDP growth in 2005 with debt at 28% of GDP), can raise their per-capita incomes to absorb industrial production capacity of consumer goods while reducing GDP growth dependency on US exports. Japan is also counting on China to supplement the US as their primary export market.

The Petrodollar is the key to what will transpire in the immediate economic future, with the US, Japan and China being the world's largest oil consumers. While most Americans are fixated on the cost of gasoline, oil's second largest usage is for food production. That's why energy and food are excluded from US government inflation numbers. If the US does in fact attack Iran and disrupt their oil and natural gas supply of China, Europe will become more dependent on Russia for their oil (in Euros) and China will expand oil imports from Canada and S. America suing USD obtained in their trade surplus as US usage will decrease due to soaring interest rates to finance our war machine, crippling much of remaining US viable industry including residential housing. Food will become very expensive, as will other consumer items, as we print more money worth less to sustain our debt service.

 

I have to admit the more you look at this from a "big picture" perspective the more interesting, and completely interwoven it becomes (it can be one fuzzy puzzle for lack of better words).

For a moment I considered the fact both DSNUT and georged are on the total opposite end of the country than I am, and how the very large differences in the local economies could effect our opinions or perspectives etc, and then I looked at the known differences in our professional experiences (builder/contractor v industrial and automotive supply etc) and there seems to be reasons we all may not look at what has or is happening the same.

I considered this very interesting point about how as the manufacturing in the US has sharply declined the housing market has steadilly increased except for a short period in the 90's that ended nearly 10 years ago. I know the exact amounts of lost production and years of new housing declines differ by region, but this is an approx average etc.

In this area there are only a few employers where there has been steady increases in growth and employee hiring, and those are Goverment, housing, and pharmacutical (in that order). Now I know a lot of the govt increases are sort of hidden in the growing use of outside contractors (and these dont supply the same levels of income and bene's to the worker), and many of the housing jobs are not the most desired either, but the point is that much of what is keeping people working is a result of increasing goverment, the interest rate driven housing market, and legal drug dealers.

These may cause some to have a positive outlook, but with the known conditions of govt and deficits, the potential inflation and rise in interest rates threatening the housing growth, and the fact that many of the jobs that have been replacing all those good mfg ones we have been losing do not have the same bene packages if any at all just who will be able to afford all the pricey drugs?

Sure there is potential for continued growth in some sectors, and on a long shot there may even be a change of the thinking and policies in the US that cause pressure on imports, and incourage exports helping to bring back some of the lost production, and damn I do wish that things can make a positive turnaround without having to pressure everyone with a recession that would not only cause additional redistribution of wealth etc but set the playing field lower just to see future growth.

Maybe things will get better or continue to be good etc (depends on how you see it now) but it seems were on a ten year cycle where the only driving force for realizing any increases is from recovering from deep decreases, and thats not healthy for the economy or those of us living in it.

 

I think we're on different pages. We (the US) went off the gold standard many decades ago. Our cash flow to meet government expenses is dependent on tax revenue and debt, with debt being in the amount of annual deficit, supplemental spending and diverted SS Trust funds (public bonds [debt] are issued for SS Trust funds). We as a country have no reserves other than the ability of our population and industry to pay taxes to operate our government and service that debt.

As that debt increases, the value of USD decreases, creating monetary inflation which demands higher interest rates to sell that debt. If you'd like examples of what monetary inflation can do to an economy, I suggest you look at Argentina, Russia and other countries who have experienced their currencies being devalued. The first thing that occurs is a defined gap between the haves and have nots. If a have not works for say $1k a week, a monetary inflation (devaluation) of 5%/year will leave 75% of purchasing power in five years. That's what's currently happening in the US with stagnant and declining wages from going to a service economy and monetary inflation. While the total dollars in circulation may increase, they're worth less. That's the fallacy of being dependent on gross GDP as a benchmark in a country such as the US where internal transactions make up the GDP due to a payment imbalance. Somebody gets a divorce, that transaction increases GDP but doesn't bring any new wealth into the country.

Positive cash flow is always king, be it an individual, private entity or government as the ability to absorb and service debt or use reserves is finite. That's a fundamental of commerce.

 

I don't disagree with any of that but just because we have cashflow difficulties during a time of war doesn't mean our whole economy is heading into the toilet. I have bad months for cashflow while my financial situation is under constant improvement. Our country can easily absorb the cost of Katrina and this war on terror without being in big trouble. You will notice in my previous post that I agreed with you that inflation is the main thing I keep my eye on while this fed is juggling the chainsaws. I worry about inflation more than I worry about the housing market. As of right now, inflation is not causing us any problems that I can see. Sure my Diesel bill is up to about $600 per month which half of that is pulling my quads over to the sand a couple of times per month. That is up from $400 per month last May. I don't care, my house payment is down by over $300 per month on the same term because my interest rate is so good. None of my expenses have gone up that I can tell, where I haven't had a savings to counter it. I pay over $4,200 per month in taxes just taken from my check and my wifes. The tax cuts reduced that by a few hundred.

I am getting way off track but let me throw this out to you:

Sometimes when balancing under circumstances that are not ideal (time of war), short term sacrifices or questionable directions can be mistaken for long-term trends. Our current circumstances are really unlike any time in history.

I keep asking this question but get no answer: If I would have asked you in 2001 if you thought 2003, 4 and 5 would turn out like they did, what would you have said to me? I don't get into fiscal debates often but I remember hearing the exact same arguments you are making back in 2000 - 2001 about how the economy is declining and it will continue to decline. It did the opposite. The stock market (DJI) (which I know is not the economy) was around 8500 in '01 as I recall and where is it now? Why?

 

Ok lets get the old crystal ball out of the closet [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

It looks like the handfull of those seeing positive outcome from the current economy, are somewhat shadowed (this is an old ball so its not always clear lol) by those who are seeing SOS (same old shiit) and a steady errosion of their net worth, income, and quality of life.

It could appear that what positive things some are seeing may very well be the early start of an era of prosperous growth etc, but there are also visions of increased inflation, under employment, consumer costs, energy costs, closed or moved manufacturing facilities, unemployment in the service sector due to decreased US based mfg to service, govt spending to try and "trump" the decline, and so others that are not as clear that it is diffilcult to believe this to be the beginning of an uptrend, and more likely the reversal of a previous and current artifical high point in the economy.

Its obvious things are different on the northern west coast, but even though there is some recent improvement in the NE it just does net seem to be based on or from solid changes that will allow it to perpetuate.

I have friends all around the country, and there are real differences on a local basis, but the more I have been thinking about the national or global situation the more its apparant that it will take more than just a little luck for this to be the start of a boom.

Many look to the unemployment numbers (which I could never believe were accurate anyhow) that somehow attempt to paint a pretty picture, but I think we all know these are not the jobs or compensation that was seen at the previous jobs, and due to cost cutting on the corp levels these now lower paying positions come with a higher cost (no pensions, no medical, etc etc).

Guess my crystal ball as couldy as it may be just isnt producing many positive scenerios [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

 

Sounds like you need a new one.[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img][img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img] The positive motivator is broken. That will cause any crystal ball to act like that.

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

 

No argument here, they are both controlled by the same interests, so its not surprising that they appear the same.

 

This was an interesting oped piece in todays papers.


Why I did what I did
Tell A Friend

by Lt. Col. Bill Burkett, Texas Air National Guard, ret.

Lt. Col. Bill Burkett, Texas National Guard, retired, caused a firestorm in September, 2004, when he was involved in a 60 Minutes segment which dealt with President Bush’s service in the National Guard. While CBS ultimately retracted their story, the basic truth of the revelations is unchallenged. Peabody Award winner Mary Mapes, who produced the segment of 60 Minutes and was fired after CBS apologized for it, maintains the authenticity of the documents and claims that the attacks against her were orchestrated by a right-wing Internet smear campaign. She wrote a book, Truth and Duty: The Press, the President, and the Privilege of Power about the scandal. Lt. Col. Burkett has been attacked and maligned for his involvement in this episode. In my eyes, Lt. Col. Burkett served his country honorably and in this instance tried to do the right thing, at great personal cost. He is a true ‘local hero’ in a time sorely lacking many. This OpEd piece is in response to my request that he write about why he did what he did. Below is his reply.
Joan Brunwasser


Why did I do what I did… First let me say what I did and didn't do. I did finally decide to share these documents which were passed to me along with other archives with those that could enter them within an ongoing debate concerning a resume that was obviously fudged, had absolute gaps and unanswered questions big enough to drive a truck through. The President could have honestly answered those questions, but chose not to after obviously fabricating a media message within his autobiography that was false. He wisely decided to stop lying, so he went silent.

I did not falsify or fabricate these documents in any way, nor the backgrounds given concerning them.

I saw no meaningful purpose in sharing them until the summer of 2004 because I felt the Vietnam debate was counterproductive to the nation. But once the issue became integrity and truthfulness, the documents took on a different level of importance, and I relinquished them.

There were lots of strange things and facts that no one wants to report because they undermine the theories that have been launched. For example, at least one major media person who was at the front of exposing my identity withheld key and critical information in his possession that would have proven my credibility. Not only the Republicans, but the Democrats were working this story and not from a factual perspective on either side. And the talking points on the memos that ended up while the piece was playing came from a leak within the CBS team and their consultants.

It was contentious and lost its credibility no sooner than it was released because the same people fighting this issue were part of the multi million dollar Swift Boat campaign.

What did it cost me? Most everything except my integrity and my spirit.

None of that was for sale and therefore could not be eroded by anyone other than me.

For 28 years I served in uniform; took an oath that said I would protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic; and placed America first.

I don't think that's any different calling than any stockholder of this country must take.

What must we all do?

Our educators have done us a disservice over the past 25 years. Most of our citizens under the age of 35 have never read the Declaration of Independence which defines WHY we became a free and sovereign nation and what sets America apart.

I believe that less than 10% of all Americans under the age of 35 have ever read the Constitution of the United States and understand the "VALUES" of America.

That's why they could invent, substitute and otherwise overlay CONSTITUTIONAL AMERICAN VALUES with more sectarian ones through the last seven Presidential campaigns.

So I have no doubt that once these two basic steps are taken by Every American, we will find a renewed soberness and intensity within this land.

How do you change the mindset of putting myself first - the selfish mindset - with "selfless mindsets" or putting the nation first?

Well we know it won't come out of Washington, and that's the cynicism that is almost unanimous in America.

So it must come from each of us who feel betrayed by the candidate choices at each election. You see, I believe that there is no way that Americans would tolerate the poor government that they receive if they were not conditioned to expecting nothing but poor government.

If we are conditioned that all politicians are crooked, then we are not surprised when we find it in bushel basket lots, corruption abounding. We aren't surprised that the President and Vice President have lied to America profusely, and therefore consider it politics as usual rather than a criminal act.

We must first hold America and our Constitution and dreams to a much higher standard. They are the law of the land.

But the responsibility to police that standard begins with each of us. It doesn't start in the pulpit. It doesn't start in the classroom. It doesn't start in the city hall, legislature, or the Beltway.

It begins at home.

Values aren't about religion. They aren't a product of going to church, necessarily, even though churches should be teaching them, and many are simply not. Today's pulpits are more filled with politics than most political campaigns. They are money machines meant as an elixir to make us feel better; making us feel good than we are better than the largely unnamed heathens and witches of society (JUDGEMENTALISM is a sin), ignoring the needs of those afflicted other than a good scolding, and building temples and trinkets of worship (idolatry) through brick and mortar, wealth and trinkets of gold and wealth.

American Values are rooted within the Bible, yes. But they too are rooted within the Koran, and all things good in religion.

They are rooted also within the Constitution of this United States not as a sectarian statement but as a values statement that "all men are created equal and equally endowed by their creator", the true Value of America and Democracy.

So it begins with each of us.

It begins in our churches and schools, where we speak out and demand that education begin with the reading and understanding of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution and paralleling World History such as the Republic of Germany circa 1921-1943.

It begins in churches when we demand that we quit speaking of government as being an extension of the church and confronting those that wrongfully do.

It begins in elections when we demand campaign integrity, and fair elections and completely eliminate practices that bias, discriminate or otherwise falsely disenfranchise - and that includes electronic voting.

It begins with each of us in letters to the editor, in letters to candidates (before they are congressmen), in essays and in stands within our precinct meetings. It means a need for prompt and immediate accountability of those elected and if not accountable that they be fired in the Donald Trump tradition of immediacy.

These are simple things that each of us have allowed ourselves to think are beyond our reach.

When we feel small, we ignore. It becomes a cancer on our soul. We are unwilling to take a risk to do what we know is right.

We must take every risk.

I am a stronger man today than I was two years ago. I am poorer in the bank, but stronger in my character and self-respect.

I know of no other time in history in which 56 congressmen stood up and introduced a resolution that in essence indicted me without even an investigation or trial. It was the worst case of slander and libel in this nation's history and many organizations including CBS, Rush Limbaugh and politicians, Congress and those writing books participated without a hint of the facts.

But the facts have not and will not change.

I am personally struggling to keep up with the increasing health demands and the financial squeeze that this defamation of my character has placed me under. I am angry and have every right to be.

But I love this country no less than before.

I often wish I could run and hide; move to Mexico, Costa Rica or Belize. I am gravely concerned. But as long as I consider myself an American, I must fight for her.

It is simply my responsibility under my Contract with America - the Constitution of the United States.

Bill Burkett

Lt. Col. Burkett, Texas National Guard, ret. lives in Texas.

 

This is from russ fiengold, in todays news.

Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senator Russ Feingold has announced that he will introduce a resolution in the U.S. Senate on Monday to censure the President of the United States. Feingold's resolution condemns the President's actions in authorizing the illegal wiretapping program and then misleading the country about the existence and legality of the program. Feingold calls the resolution an appropriate and responsible step for Congress to take in response to the President's undermining of the separation of powers and ignoring the rule of law.

"The President must be held accountable for authorizing a program that clearly violates the law and then misleading the country about its existence and its legality," Feingold said. "The President's actions, as well as his misleading statements to both Congress and the public about the program, demand a serious response. If Congress does not censure the President, we will be tacitly condoning his actions, and undermining both the separation of powers and the rule of law."

The President's illegal wiretapping program is in direct violation of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). The FISA law makes it a crime to wiretap Americans in the United States without a warrant or a court order. The Bush Administration has obtained thousands of FISA warrants since September 11th and has almost never been rejected by the FISA court. FISA even allows wiretaps to be executed immediately in an emergency as long as the government obtains a warrant within 72 hours.

"This issue is not about whether the government should be wiretapping terrorists – of course it should, and it can under current law" Feingold said. "But this President and this administration decided to break the law and they have yet to give a convincing explanation of why their actions were necessary, appropriate, or legal. Passing more laws will not change the fact that the President broke the ones already in place and for that, Congress must hold him accountable."

 

Soledad O'Brien. Idiot.
by georgia10
Mon Mar 13, 2006 at 10:44:56 AM PDT

CNN's Soledad O'Brien's interview with Russ Feingold today would have made Kyra Philips proud. In a magnificent feat of bimbotude, O'Brien goes from claiming censure is a "kind of a slap on the wrist" to "something quite serious" in one minute flat. "The jury's not back" on the program, she claimed, to which Feingold replied "the jury's been dismantled". Feingold brilliantly called her on her ignorance, telling her the RNC intimidated her, because that's the only way someone would think there is a serious debate about the legality of the program (almost all legal scholars have declared that the program is blatantly illegal).

O'Brien's performance demonstrates what Armando touched on here, which is how the acceptance of an argument as reasonable rests largely on how many times it gets repeated. Like I said, almost EVERY SINGLE legal scholar agrees with Feingold that the legal issue here is already resolved: the President broke the law, and you don't need an investigation to prove that. He admitted it. Yet notice how O'Brien and other media puppets claim there is a "serious debate" about the legality of the program. Why? Because those who seek to excuse the President's crimes have dominated the discussion thus far. Their lies and disingenuous legal positions have taken hold because we haven't been shouting the truth from the rooftops: the law is clear, and the President broke it.